What Can We Do About Bird Flu?

WHAT CAN WE DO?

This is the section where you hope to read about useful drugs, vaccines, or sensible precautions that you can take… Sorry. It isn't like that.

There is no vaccine yet for the strain of H5N1 that will cause the next pandemic.
It is only after a disease has surfaced that it is possible to isolate the virus and start to develop a vaccine.
After that it takes months to build up a significant amount of stock.
The next strain hasn't evolved yet, so we have no vaccine.

Unfortunately, because the next pandemic could hurtle around the world in days, that leaves us very vulnerable because it will be infecting us long before we can retaliate…

We do have some small stocks of a vaccine against the strain of H5N1 that is around and affecting birds at the moment, but we just cannot guess at how effective this might be against the next pandemic strain. Even if it is effective, the small stocks that exist will be reserved for the health-workers who we will need to man the hospitals. Oh, and the politicians as well, I expect…

(The current vaccine used routinely as a flu jab for the elderly, diabetics etc will probably be completely ineffective at warding off any H5N1 epidemic.)

There is no drug that we know to be effective against the strain of H5N1 that will cause the next pandemic.
Of course there isn't – for the same reason that there isn't a vaccine yet.
An effective drug for any disease can only be developed and manufactured in bulk after the disease has been isolated and studied. Even then it usually takes years to bring a new, safe drug to market.
The next strain hasn't evolved yet, so we have no effective drugs.

Again, because the next pandemic could hurtle around the world in days, that leaves us very vulnerable…

What about Tamiflu? Well Tamiflu is a drug with very limited effectiveness – it can only help reduce the seriousness of the illness if treatment is started within 36 hours of infection. Preferably 6 – 12 hours. That's all there is.
If the next pandemic strain kills as quickly as it did in 1918, you may not live for 36 hours after infection… So even if you can get Tamiflu from your doctor, it may not be soon enough to help...

And if 25% of the population is suffering, including 25% of the healthcare workers, how quickly will you get an appointment at your GP's surgery?
Besides which, stocks of Tamiflu are small and will inevitably be reserved for healthcare workers. Oh, and politicians as well, I expect…
(There is now another anti-viral called Relenza – but the same doubts exist.)

SO WHAT ELSE CAN BE DONE?

Sadly, not a lot.
There are no quick fixes.
There are no wonder drugs.
No smart ideas.

New Scientist ran a special pull-out supplement on 7th January 2006, called “The Bird Flu Threat”.
It concluded with a page entitled “How to protect yourself and your family”. It was depressing reading.

If a pandemic has started, then washing your hands frequently and avoiding other people is the best advice they could offer.
Isolating yourself (which was my big plan) could be difficult to achieve if there is a high level of social disruption lasting for several months – or even a couple of years. Don't forget, the last time H5N1 did the rounds (in 1918) it is reckoned that it infected 98% of the world's population. Even the Eskimos got it.
And the virulence of the bug could also increase as time passes - that's what happened in 1918. So catching it early could be a blessing in disguise – or not. No-one knows. We just can't guess in advance...

Stocking up with antibiotics to help control secondary infections like pneumonia could help – but is actually more difficult in a country with drugs controlled by the National Health Service than somewhere where you can go out and buy them.

Their best advice was “become indispensable”. In this, they are referring to the fact that the limited stocks of vaccines and drugs that will be available will be reserved for emergency workers. Oh, and politicians, I expect.

SO IS THERE NOTHING ELSE TO BE DONE?

What Is Our Government Doing To Help Us Survive Bird Flu?

What Is Our Government Not Doing To Help Us Survive Bird Flu?

What Can I Do For Myself To Protect Against Bird Flu?

Being Positive About Bird Flu

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