	What The Experts Say The Chief Medical Officer to the UK Government, Sir Liam Donaldson, has now said on many occasions that an epidemic of H5N1 passing person-to-person is "now inevitable". He says "It isn't a matter of if, it is a matter of when". Last year.... BBC Sunday AM October 2005 (Starting where interviewer is seeking to obtain clarification as to what is a realistic forecast of likely fatalities as extrapolated from what has happened in past pandemics.) ANDREW MARR: Two hundred and 50 thousand? LIAM DONALDSON: Yes - 250,000 in the UK - we are living in very different times - those were in the days before proper hospital facilities, before intensive care, before antibiotics, so we're not planned - we obviously have to be flexible in our plans and prepare for everything - but at the moment our estimate is that we expect around 50 - 55,000 but it could be higher - ANDREW MARR: Three quarters of a million is not unrealistic? LIAM DONALDSON: It's not impossible but I think it's more realistic that the figure will be a lot lower than that. The 50,000 quote is the lower estimate and is based really on what happened in the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968. On this occasion the virus had a lower mortality than in 1918. There is absolutely no specific reason to guess that it will be the same next time around - other than that 50,000 is not as scary as 750,000 (See Select Committee on Science and Technology Examination of Witnesses 30 NOVEMBER 2005 ) The Observer Sunday October 16, 2005"GP's told: prepare for 14 million flu victims" Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer, who advises the government, will tell every GP practice in the country to gear up for the 'inevitable' event... 'This is public health enemy number one,' Donaldson told The Observer. 'It is at the top of our priority list and it is a when, not whether.' He said the world was now long overdue a flu pandemic.. GPs in an area covering 100,000 people will have to cope with 1,000 extra patients every week at the peak of the pandemic, according to government estimates. He defended the position of the NHS and said there were plans in place if the pandemic hit in the next few months, but admitted it would be better if there was more time to prepare. He said the country would not be fully prepared until 2006. But GPs hit back, saying they were not informed about bird flu and felt ill-equipped to reassure worried patients. In a poll run on Doctors.net.uk, used by more than four out of five doctors, 77 per cent said they felt they did not know enough to reassure patients. Many said they had got more information from the media than the Department of Health. Well, that was a year ago. I asked at my doctor's surgery recently. (October 2006) Have they got any policy about Bird Flu? No they hadn't.... Bird flu pandemic 'will hit UK' , BBC News October 2005 ..... He also said the situation was not comparable to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 which killed millions around the world, as we now lived in "different times" with great advances in hospitals and medical science. "We have to get the [new] virus from wherever it occurs... and get it into our labs and then make a vaccine," he added. The only problem is that another year has gone by - and no such progress has been made. The standard flu vaccine for the elderly and vulnerable hasn't even been delivered on time this year... (October 2006) And this year.... The Times (Online) April 10th 2006 "Bird flu unlikely to infect people", says leading scientist THE bird flu virus is very unlikely to change into a form that will infect human beings, the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser said yesterday. Sir David King said that it was “totally misleading” to suggest that a global flu pandemic in humans was inevitable. His attempt to ease public concern coincided with the leak of documents detailing government plans to deal with a widespread outbreak of a human form of the virus. A leaked letter from Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer, revealed that he has warned ministers of a worst-case scenario in which 100,000 children could die. The Sunday Times reported that, in a letter to Jacqui Smith, the Schools Minister, Sir Liam had written: “If all age groups were affected equally, and the virus was particularly severe, the excess deaths in school-age children could be as high as 100,000. This would mean that potentially 50,000 deaths might be prevented by school closures.” Last week The Sunday Times disclosed a Home Office report that said a “prudent” worst case for deaths among the whole population was 320,000. However, the chief medical officer's letter says that a severe disease could see fatalities of 700,000. Time to stop squabbling and make up your minds, chaps? In fact, the leaked story turned out to be true. The UK Department for Education and Skills has now issued a booklet to all schools: "Planning for a human infuenza pandemic". Download one for yourself as a PDF or Word document: A summary guidance for schools. At least now the authorities are putting it into print that "50,000 - 700,000 more people than usual may die". --------------------------------------------------------- UK Department of Health 16th October 2006: Bird flu and pandemic influenza: what are the risks? A reasonable summary containing useful links such as the following: World Health Organisation: Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response Includes updated "Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A(H5N1) " And constantly updated "Disease Outbreak News" If something happens, you probably have more chance of reading it here first than waiting for an honest announcement from central government. Or go to: Latest Or look up what others have asked us, under Frequently Asked Questions: FAQs If you are dubious about what you have read so far on this website, read a bit about what others have been writing: see Resources Top of Page If you would like to comment on any of the content about Bird Flu, or if you would like to receive our free email Newsletter please Contact Us About Bird Flu *Or go to* *http://grumpyoldwebsites.blogspot.com* *Leave a comment for all to see. Even get an immediate response!*

What The Experts Say

The Chief Medical Officer to the UK Government, Sir Liam Donaldson, has now said on many occasions that an epidemic of H5N1 passing person-to-person is "now inevitable". He says "It isn't a matter of if, it is a matter of when".

Last year....

(Starting where interviewer is seeking to obtain clarification as to what is a realistic forecast of likely fatalities as extrapolated from what has happened in past pandemics.)

LIAM DONALDSON: Yes - 250,000 in the UK - we are living in very different times - those were in the days before proper hospital facilities, before intensive care, before antibiotics, so we're not planned - we obviously have to be flexible in our plans and prepare for everything - but at the moment our estimate is that we expect around 50 - 55,000 but it could be higher -

LIAM DONALDSON: It's not impossible but I think it's more realistic that the figure will be a lot lower than that.

The 50,000 quote is the lower estimate and is based really on what happened in the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968. On this occasion the virus had a lower mortality than in 1918. There is absolutely no specific reason to guess that it will be the same next time around - other than that 50,000 is not as scary as 750,000
(See Select Committee on Science and Technology Examination of Witnesses 30 NOVEMBER 2005 )

Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer, who advises the government, will tell every GP practice in the country to gear up for the 'inevitable' event...
'This is public health enemy number one,' Donaldson told The Observer. 'It is at the top of our priority list and it is a when, not whether.' He said the world was now long overdue a flu pandemic..
GPs in an area covering 100,000 people will have to cope with 1,000 extra patients every week at the peak of the pandemic, according to government estimates.
He defended the position of the NHS and said there were plans in place if the pandemic hit in the next few months, but admitted it would be better if there was more time to prepare. He said the country would not be fully prepared until 2006.
But GPs hit back, saying they were not informed about bird flu and felt ill-equipped to reassure worried patients. In a poll run on Doctors.net.uk, used by more than four out of five doctors, 77 per cent said they felt they did not know enough to reassure patients. Many said they had got more information from the media than the Department of Health.

Well, that was a year ago. I asked at my doctor's surgery recently. (October 2006)
Have they got any policy about Bird Flu? No they hadn't....

..... He also said the situation was not comparable to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 which killed millions around the world, as we now lived in "different times" with great advances in hospitals and medical science.
"We have to get the [new] virus from wherever it occurs... and get it into our labs and then make a vaccine," he added.

The only problem is that another year has gone by - and no such progress has been made.
The standard flu vaccine for the elderly and vulnerable hasn't even been delivered on time this year... (October 2006)

"Bird flu unlikely to infect people", says leading scientist
THE bird flu virus is very unlikely to change into a form that will infect human beings, the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser said yesterday. Sir David King said that it was “totally misleading” to suggest that a global flu pandemic in humans was inevitable. His attempt to ease public concern coincided with the leak of documents detailing government plans to deal with a widespread outbreak of a human form of the virus.

A leaked letter from Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer, revealed that he has warned ministers of a worst-case scenario in which 100,000 children could die. The Sunday Times reported that, in a letter to Jacqui Smith, the Schools Minister, Sir Liam had written: “If all age groups were affected equally, and the virus was particularly severe, the excess deaths in school-age children could be as high as 100,000. This would mean that potentially 50,000 deaths might be prevented by school closures.”

Last week The Sunday Times disclosed a Home Office report that said a “prudent” worst case for deaths among the whole population was 320,000. However, the chief medical officer's letter says that a severe disease could see fatalities of 700,000.

Time to stop squabbling and make up your minds, chaps? In fact, the leaked story turned out to be true.
The UK Department for Education and Skills has now issued a booklet to all schools: "Planning for a human infuenza pandemic". Download one for yourself as a PDF or Word document:
A summary guidance for schools.
At least now the authorities are putting it into print that "50,000 - 700,000 more people than usual may die".

If something happens, you probably have more chance of reading it here first than waiting for an honest announcement from central government.

Or go to: Latest
Or look up what others have asked us, under Frequently Asked Questions: FAQs

If you are dubious about what you have read so far on this website, read a bit about what others have been writing: see Resources

If you would like to comment on any of the content about Bird Flu, or if you would like to receive our free email Newsletter please Contact Us About Bird Flu

The Truth About Bird Flu

What The Experts Say